Calculate True Football Fair Odds Using Poisson Distribution
Bettify is a sophisticated football betting analytics platform that uses the bivariate Poisson distribution to calculate true match probabilities and fair odds. Our statistical model removes bookmaker margins, giving you transparent, data-driven odds for matches across Europe's top leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1.
Unlike traditional tipster services, we focus on mathematical modeling of football match data. By analyzing team attack strength, defense ratings, home advantage factors, and historical expected goals (xG), our Poisson model generates probability distributions for all possible scorelines in upcoming matches.
What is Bettify and How Does It Work?
Bettify is a fair odds calculator that applies advanced football statistics to identify value betting opportunities. Our methodology centers on the Poisson distribution, a statistical model that predicts the probability of goals being scored based on historical team performance data.
The platform collects match data from top European leagues, calculates each team's attacking and defensive strengths, and uses these metrics to project expected goals for upcoming fixtures. We then compare our calculated fair odds against bookmaker prices to highlight matches where the statistical edge favors the bettor.
Learn more about our approach in our detailed methodology guide or explore how Poisson betting works.
Find Value Bets in European Football Leagues
Value betting is the cornerstone of profitable sports betting. A value bet occurs when the probability of an outcome, as calculated by our statistical model, is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Our value bets page automatically identifies these opportunities across all supported leagues.
We calculate the expected value percentage for each potential bet, showing you exactly how much edge exists. Combined with Kelly Criterion staking, you can optimize your bet sizes for long-term growth while managing risk through proper bankroll management.
Supported European Football Leagues
- Premier League (England) - The world's most-watched football league
- La Liga (Spain) - Home to Barcelona and Real Madrid
- Bundesliga (Germany) - Known for attacking, high-scoring football
- Serie A (Italy) - Tactical excellence and defensive mastery
- Ligue 1 (France) - French football's top division
- Championship (England) - Competitive second-tier English football
Each league page provides comprehensive match statistics, team form analysis, and upcoming fixture predictions powered by our expected goals (xG) model.
Educational Betting Guides
Whether you're new to statistical betting or looking to refine your strategy, our betting guides cover essential topics:
- Poisson Distribution in Football Betting - Understanding the mathematical foundation
- Value Betting Explained - How to identify and exploit value
- Expected Goals (xG) Guide - The modern metric for chance quality
- Kelly Criterion for Bet Sizing - Optimal staking strategies
- Bankroll Management - Protecting your betting capital
Daily Football Predictions and Betting Tips
Visit our betting tips and football predictions pages for daily match analysis. Unlike opinion-based tipsters, our predictions are generated purely from statistical models, ensuring consistency and transparency in our methodology.